Fixing the Hall of Fame – Part 5
by Daniel Greenia
Part 5a – Towards Constructing a Useful Hall of Fame Ballot
Part of the educational program to develop the electorate will be to give them a ballot with more information about the players than just names. We want to try to include useful information in a concise format. Voters will also be directed to sources for more information.
The aim is two fold: 1) to give the voters a statistical portrait, an image of every candidate, side-by-side with the other candidates; 2) to encourage the voters to perform further exploration of the candidates. We’ll want to emphasize that the information presented is merely thumbnails, a starting point for an in-depth study of players’ qualifications.
Of course, what I present here is just a proposal, a first draft. You may decide otherwise just what information is most worthwhile for putting before the voters’ eyes. Players are grouped in position order. (My limited formatting skills led to splitting the table.) So here is the 2011 “useful” BBWAA ballot:
Bal Ply 3 top 3 top Yrs Won Led Team James First-Last Name Yrs Yrs Pos CY MVP AS GG TC inLCS WinSh Bert Blyleven 14 22 SP-99% 3/3/4 13/26/-- 2 0 1 3 339 Kevin Brown 1 19 SP-98% 2/3/6 16/22/-- 6 0 3 3 241 Al Leiter 1 19 SP-91% 6/9/- --/--/-- 2 0 0 4 150 Jack Morris 12 18 SP-96% 3/3/4 13/13/15 5 0 3 4 225 Wilson Alvarez 1 14 SP-74% -/-/- --/--/-- 1 0 0 1 105 Kirk Rueter 1 13 SP-99% -/--- --/--/-- 0 0 0 1 83 John Franco 1 21 RP-100% 7/-/- 12/20/-- 4 0 5 2 182 Lee Smith 9 18 RP-99% 2/4/5 8/14/18 7 0 4 2 198 Steve Reed 1 14 RP-100% -/-/- --/--/-- 0 0 1 2 83 Ugueth Urbina 1 11 RP-96% -/-/- --/--/-- 2 0 2 1 101 Bal Ply 3 top Yrs Won Led Team James First-Last Name Yrs Yrs Pos 1 Pos 2 MVP AS GG TC inLCS WinSh Harold Baines 5 22 DH-58% RF-37% 9/10/13 6 0 0 4 307 Edgar Martinez 2 18 DH-69% 3B-27% 3/6/12 7 0 3 3 305 Benito Santiago 1 20 C-97% 20/23/-- 5 3 0 2 190 Charles Johnson 1 12 C-98% 11/--/-- 2 4 0 1 131 Rafael Palmeiro 1 20 1B-76% DH-15% 5/6/8 4 3 0 2 395 Fred McGriff 2 19 1B-91% 4/6/6 5 0 2 5 341 John Olerud 1 17 1B-92% 3/12/-- 2 3 1 7 301 Mark McGwire 5 16 1B-94% 2/4/5 12 1 5 5 342 Tino Martinez 1 16 1B-92% 2/12/-- 2 0 0 7 216 Jeff Bagwell 1 15 1B-98% 1/2/3 4 1 1 2 388 Don Mattingly 11 14 1B-92% 1/2/5 6 9 2 0 263 Roberto Alomar 2 17 2B-98% 3/4/6 12 10 0 5 376 Bret Boone 1 14 2B-99% 3/10/21 3 4 1 3 208 Carlos Baerga 1 14 2B-65% PH-19% 10/11/-- 3 0 0 1 160 Alan Trammell 10 20 SS-93% 2/7/9 6 4 0 2 318 Barry Larkin 2 19 SS-96% 1/7/12 12 3 0 2 346 Jose Offerman 1 15 SS-37% 2B-36% --/--/-- 2 0 0 1 153 Tim Raines 4 23 LF-79% 5/6/7 7 0 1 4 390 B.J. Surhoff 1 19 LF-39% C-30% 18/--/-- 1 0 0 3 230 Bobby Higginson 1 11 LF-48% RF-47% --/--/-- 0 0 0 0 157 Dale Murphy 13 18 CF-48% RF-34% 1/1/7 7 5 4 1 294 Marquis Grissom 1 17 CF-91% 8/9/12 2 4 0 3 250 Dave Parker 15 19 RF-73% DH-20% 1/2/3 7 3 3 5 327 Larry Walker 1 17 RF-86% 1/5/7 5 7 4 2 311 Juan Gonzalez 1 17 RF-45% DH-22% 1/1/4 3 0 3 0 234 Raul Mondesi 1 13 RF-87% 15/--/-- 1 2 0 0 183 Chone OPS+ Last Name WAR ERA+ off G W - L WL% SV IP SO ERA Blyleven 87.6 118 86 692 287-250 .534 0 4970 3701 3.31 Brown 63.9 127 78 486 211-144 .594 0 3256 2397 3.28 Leiter 36.2 112 89 419 162-132 .551 2 2391 1974 3.80 Morris 39.3 105 89 549 254-186 .577 0 3824 2478 3.90 Alvarez 23.9 112 90 355 102- 92 .526 4 1748 1330 3.96 Rueter 11.4 97 105 340 130- 92 .586 0 1918 818 4.27 Franco 25.6 137 84 1119 90- 87 .508 424 1246 975 2.89 Smith 29.8 131 79 1022 71- 92 .436 478 1289 1251 3.03 Reed 13.8 133 83 833 49- 44 .527 18 871 630 3.63 Urbina 13.8 129 74 583 44- 49 .473 237 697 814 3.45 Chone Last Name WAR OPS+ RC G H HR RBI R BA OBP SLG Baines 37.0 120 1606 2830 2866 384 1628 1299 .289 .356 .465 Martinez 67.2 147 1631 2055 2247 309 1261 1219 .312 .418 .515 Santiago 23.8 93 838 1978 1830 217 920 755 .263 .307 .415 Johnson 21.9 97 550 1188 940 167 570 465 .245 .330 .433 Palmeiro 66.0 132 2040 2831 3020 569 1835 1663 .288 .371 .515 McGriff 50.5 134 1704 2460 2490 493 1550 1349 .284 .377 .509 Olerud 56.8 128 1455 2234 2239 255 1230 1139 .295 .398 .465 McGwire 63.1 162 1529 1874 1626 583 1414 1167 .263 .394 .588 Martinez 25.7 112 1146 2023 1925 339 1271 1008 .271 .344 .471 Bagwell 79.9 149 1788 2150 2314 449 1529 1517 .297 .408 .540 Mattingly 39.8 127 1168 1785 2153 222 1099 1007 .307 .358 .471 Alomar 63.5 116 1575 2379 2724 210 1134 1508 .300 .371 .443 Boone 21.4 101 958 1780 1775 252 1021 927 .266 .325 .442 Baerga 15.8 100 746 1630 1583 134 774 731 .291 .332 .423 Trammell 66.8 110 1255 2293 2365 185 1003 1231 .285 .352 .415 Larkin 68.9 116 1381 2180 2340 198 960 1329 .295 .371 .444 Offerman 12.3 94 812 1651 1551 57 537 840 .273 .360 .373 Raines 64.6 123 1636 2502 2605 170 980 1571 .294 .385 .425 Surhoff 34.4 98 1138 2313 2326 188 1153 1062 .282 .332 .413 Higginson 21.4 113 835 1362 1336 187 709 736 .272 .358 .455 Murphy 44.4 121 1308 2180 2111 398 1266 1197 .265 .346 .469 Grissom 25.6 92 1101 2165 2251 227 967 1187 .272 .318 .415 Parker 37.9 121 1451 2466 2712 339 1493 1272 .290 .339 .471 Walker 67.3 140 1619 1988 2160 383 1311 1355 .313 .400 .565 Gonzalez 33.5 132 1222 1689 1936 434 1404 1061 .295 .343 .561 Mondesi 27.2 113 934 1525 1589 271 860 909 .273 .331 .485
Explanation of columns:
Bal Yrs – Number of years appearing on the BBWAA ballot.
Ply Yrs – Number of years played in MLB.
Pos – Percentage of career games played at primary position(s).
3 top CY – best three finishes in Cy Young award voting
3 top MVP – best three finishes in MVP award voting
Yrs AS – Number of years named to the all-star game roster
Won GG – Number of years awarded a gold glove
Led TC – Number of times batter lead league in a Triple Crown stat (HR-RBI-BA) or
Led TC – Number of times pitcher lead league in a Triple Crown stat (W-ERA-SO)
(For relief pitchers the categories are G-SV-ERA. The relief ERA leader requirements are: two-thirds of games in relief and G plus IP equals at least half of team games.)
Team inLCS – Number of years player appeared in the postseason for a team that played in the LCS.
James WinSh – Career total of Win shares.
Chone WAR – Career total of Wins Above Replacement developed by Sean Smith.
Other Pitching Categories:
ERA+ – Career total of ERA (adjusted for league and ballpark), average = 100.
OPS+ off – Career total of batter’s OPS allowed by pitcher (adjusted for league and ballpark), average = 100.
The rest are traditional pitching stats.
Other Batting Categories:
OPS+ – Career total of batter’s On-base Plus Slugging pct (adjusted for league and ballpark), average = 100.
RC – Career total of Runs Created, formula developed by Bill James estimating a player’s individual contribution to his team’s total runs.
The rest are traditional batting stats.
Part 5b – So, Who Should Be Elected To the Hall of Fame?
In the extremes, there are basically two answers to the question, who should be elected to the Hall of Fame? 1) Nobody but the all-time greats. 2) Everybody better than the worst player enshrined.
The first answer is the Small Hall view, taken to its logical extreme. That view sees the Hall as a place only for the “best of the best”; we must stop “watering it down” and only elect the greatest of each generation. So this means what? Five players in a decade? Whatever.
The second answer is the extreme liberal view. That view sees the job as unfinished so long as there is a better player than Tommy McCarthy outside the Hall. This means enshrining another 400+ players.
Both of these views miss the point; in any case, both are untenable. The Hall wants to elect a player or two or three each year, so they will always go beyond electing just the all-time greats. At the same time, they want to maintain a façade of exclusivity. They can excuse McCarthy, Lindstrom, Haines, etc., saying they were elected for reasons other than their value as players; thus, their playing careers should not be used as precedents for anyone else’s election.
That leaves us somewhere between the two extremes. To the question, who should be elected to the Hall of Fame, one side says just a few guys, while the other one says a lot of guys. In either case, the relevant question is: Who should be next?
We have devised a definition of Hall of Famer: one of the top 232 players retiring in 2004 or before (not including banned players such as Pete Rose and Joe Jackson). We have estimated from this that there are roughly 45 to 55 Hall candidates who rank in that circle. The Hall could decide it wants to clean up this backlog and return to the mid-80’s, when the VC had a mandate to elect two players every year. Not a bad idea, but will they elect the right players?
For any cleanup campaign to truly succeed, its focus must be towards the aim of identifying, prioritizing and publicizing the players who deserve the most attention from the Hall voters. Nobody can say exactly how many players should be in the Hall, since it’s undefined. What we can say with fair assurance is who the next players that should be elected are.
For this, we look to the “experts”. The internet is where people with peculiar interests can meet like-minded persons who share their passion. Theories and investigations can be quickly developed and shared through interaction with others who have a similar passion for the topic.
Baseball is no different than other fields in this way. We find individuals who have spent much of their lives studying the game’s history, its statistics, and its honors. The question of who should be in the Hall of Fame matters to them. They have studied all the players in the Hall and have a good idea how they rank. They have studied hundreds of candidates and know which ones are of similar quality to those enshrined. They don’t always reach the same conclusions, but a consensus of their opinions does a much better job of identifying the greatest players than does a group of newspaper writers that generally lacks the interest and the specialized knowledge that is needed.
So we’ll refer to a couple of these consensuses. First, there is the Hall of Merit (HoM). They took more than five years to walk through history, electing a predetermined number of players each year, ending up with approximately the same number as the HOF. In 113 “annual” elections beginning in 1898, they’ve elected 240 players. Five of these are in the HOF but are not grouped with its 232 players (Al Spalding, George Wright, Rube Foster, Clark Griffith and John McGraw). A couple more would be in the Hall if they were eligible (Pete Rose, Joe Jackson). So the HoM is virtually the same size as the HOF.
We’ll also look at the most popular version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from Baseball Projection (and recently added at Baseball-Reference). A mark of 48 generally indicates a serious Hall candidate; a career mark of 61 or better approximates the clearly-deserving line. This WAR is not adjusted for the short schedules of the 19th century, years lost to war service, race reasons or other factors that unnaturally shortened careers. The new candidates for the 2011 BBWAA ballot, a very strong class, includes Jeff Bagwell (79.9), Larry Walker (67.3), Rafael Palmeiro (66.0), Kevin Brown (63.9) and John Olerud (56.8). The 2012 ballot brings on Bernie Williams (47.3).
Finally, we’ll refer to a couple other projects that dealt with this topic. These were conducted in the Hall of Fame forum at Baseball-Fever. 1) Hall of Fame Purgatory (HOP) identified and ranked 58 players who should be enshrined. 2) The Ultimate Quest for Candidates (UQFC) ranked the top 20, after reviewing more than 260 candidates. It did not include the new candidates for 2010 (Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff).
We’ll prioritize the top 50 candidates for the Hall of Fame in groups of ten players, listed alphabetically. This is everyone eligible as of 2010. We head each group with a general description of the players’ quality:
Top 10: Players of the same quality as the typical BBWAA electees. There is no reason they shouldn’t be in the HOF, based on the numbers. All were elected to the Hall of Merit in their first year eligible.
• Dick Allen-1B/3B (1963-77) (61.1 WAR) (#7 HOP,#4 UQFC) (HoM elected 1983-1st yr eligible) – During his prime he was demonized by the press as a disruptive presence. More recently, his apologists believe this reputation is overblown, citing testimony of former teammates. From 1964-73 he had the game’s highest OPS+ (165).
• Roberto Alomar-2B (1988-2004) (63.6 WAR) (#4 HOP) (HoM 2010-1st) – Done in by the HOF’s first-ballot hoodoo. A cinch for election in 2011.
• Bert Blyleven-SP (1970-92) (87.6 WAR) (#2 HOP,#2 UQFC) (HoM 1998-1st) – Well-qualified for the HOF by any reasonable metric. Should finally get his well-deserved due in 2011.
• Bill Dahlen-SS (1891-1911) (75.9 WAR) (#6 HOP,#5 UQFC) (HoM 1915-1st) – Not enough of his compadres were on the VC in the HOF’s early days, I guess. The only eligible player with 1500 R and 1200 RBI not in the HOF. A defensive wiz, his record for career assists at SS stood for over 60 years.
• Paul Hines-CF (1872-91) (41.9 WAR) (#11 HOP,#8 UQFC) (HoM 1898-1st) – Twenty-year career, .302 BA, first triple crown winner and over 3000 translated hits (BB-Ref says 3,353, BPro has 3,479). The first man to play 1000 games in CF. In his career the schedule averaged less than 100 games per year.
• Barry Larkin-SS (1986-2004) (68.8 WAR) (#5 HOP) (HoM 2010-1st) – Will be elected by the BBWAA before long, sans any association with PEDs.
• Tim Raines-LF (1979-2002) (64.9 WAR) (#3 HOP,#3 UQFC) (HoM 2008-1st) – His time and place depressed his numbers. For example, his translated BA shows as .314 at BB-Ref and .315 at BPro. Might already be elected if he’d retired after 1998.
• Ron Santo-3B (1960-74) (66.4 WAR) (#1 HOP,#1 UQFC) (HoM 1980-1st) – Well known as one of the HOF’s most egregious oversights.
• Alan Trammell-SS (1977-96) (66.8 WAR) (#9 HOP,#7 UQFC) (HoM 2002-1st) – Similar value to Ozzie Smith, but a more well-rounded game.
• Deacon White-C/3B (1869-90) (43.0 WAR) (#8 HOP,#10 UQFC) (HoM 1898-1st) – He was already 28 when the NL was founded, well-established as the game’s premier catcher. Backstop for five straight champions 1873-77. Career BA of .312, two batting crowns. Over 3000 translated hits (BB-Ref says 3,257, BPro has 3,378).
11-20: Solidly qualified by the numbers, but mostly in ways that the BBWAA is unable to discern. Again, all are in the Hall of Merit.
• Ross Barnes-2B (1868-81) (33.0 WAR) (#25 HOP,#15 UQFC) (HoM 1898-1st) – The game’s best hitter for most of the 1870’s. A superior fielder, as well.
• Bobby Grich-2B (1970-86) (67.6 WAR) (#10 HOP,#12 UQFC) (HoM 1992-1st) – Bill James, 1986: “If Bobby Grich goes into the hall of fame, you’re going to have real strong evidence that sabermetrics has made an impact on how talent is evaluated by the general public”.
• Stan Hack-3B (1932-47) (54.8 WAR) (#20 HOP,#18 UQFC) (HoM 1958-6th) – The top third baseman from MLB between Baker and Mathews.
• Sherry Magee-LF (1904-19) (59.1 WAR) (#13 HOP,#11 UQFC) (HoM 1926-2nd) – Only Honus Wagner created more offense among NL hitters of the deadball era, 1900-1920.
• Edgar Martinez-DH/3B (1987-2004) (67.2 WAR) (#18 HOP) (HoM 2010-1st) – Has the highest OPS+ among all HOF candidates with 8000+ plate appearances (147).
• Mark McGwire-1B (1986-2001) (63.1 WAR) (#15 HOP,#13 UQFC) (HoM 2007-1st) – The only HOF candidate with 7500+ PA and a higher OPS+ than Edgar (162, #10 on the all time list).
• Minnie Minoso-LF (1949-64) (52.7 WAR) (#12 HOP,#6 UQFC) (HoM 1987-18th) – Lost 2-3 years due to his skin color. Broad-based skill sets like his tend to get overlooked.
• Ted Simmons-C (1968-88) (50.8 WAR) (#14 HOP,#9 UQFC) (HoM 1994-1st) – He was the only player in history with 2400 hits and 1500 games at catcher in his career, until IRod joined him.
• Joe Torre-C/1B (1960-77) (55.5 WAR) (#17 HOP,#16 UQFC) (HoM 1984-2nd) – Will be elected to the HOF as a manager, but deserves to be there already as a player. The NL’s top catcher of the 1960’s; then the MVP playing 3B. A nine-time all-star.
• Lou Whitaker-2B (1977-95) (69.5 WAR) (#16 HOP,#21 UQFC) (HoM 2001-1st) – Top 10 in many career stats for his position. Three gold gloves.
21-30: Players of the quality of the better veterans’ committee selections. The numerical argument is frequently harder to see. Again, all are in the Hall of Merit.
• John Beckwith-3B/SS (1918-38) (WAR) (#31 HOP) (HoM 1957-18th) – Great Negro League hitter and successful manager.
• Charlie Bennett-C (1878-93) (37.7 WAR) (#32 HOP) (HoM 1921-23rd) – Most durable catcher of his day and a much better hitter than the average backstop. OPS+ of 142 1881-88. Much beloved in Detroit where they named the ball park after him.
• Will Clark-1B (1986-2000) (57.4 WAR) (#22 HOP) (HoM 2006-1st) – His time and place depressed the numbers from his great peak. OPS+ of 147 1987-94.
• Darrell Evans-3B/1B (1969-89) (57.0 WAR) (#19 HOP) (HoM 1995-1st) – Excelled at everything but what the voters focus on. Fine glove, walks and power. A leader.
• Wes Ferrell-SP (1927-41) (53.3 WAR) (#24 HOP) (HoM 1964-21st) – Superior bat and great durability in a tough era for pitchers.
• Jack Glasscock-SS (1879-95) (58.1 WAR) (#27 HOP) (HoM 1904-4th) – Best shortstop of the 1880’s. OPS+ of 128 1882-90. Only Anson had more hits in the NL 1885-90. The first man to play 1500 games at SS.
• George Gore-CF (1879-92) (45.9 WAR) (#21 HOP) (HoM 1898-1st) – Leadoff hitter for 7 NL champions in the 1880’s. One of three players with 1000 runs scored and more R than G.
• Heinie Groh-3B (1912-27) (46.4 WAR) (#23 HOP) (HoM 1938-6th) – Stats show him as better than Traynor.
• Keith Hernandez-1B (1974-90) (61.0 WAR) (#36 HOP) (HoM 1996-1st) – A force in the field, great OBP. 5 years all-star, 11 GG, MVP. OPS+ of 139 1979-86.
• Home Run Johnson-SS (1895-1916) (#29 HOP) (HoM 1925-5th) – Has a good case for being the top Black player for the decade of the 1900s.
31-40: Players of the quality of the typical veterans’ committee selections. While these players are fully deserving given the Hall’s standards, they are on the back burner.
• Ken Boyer-3B (1955-69) (58.3 WAR) (#37 HOP) (HoM 1991-17th) – 7 years all-star, 5 GG, MVP. Lost two years to military service.
• Bob Caruthers-SP/RF (1884-93) (71.4 WAR) (#43 HOP) (HoM 1930-32nd) – W-L pct .688, 3rd all-time. Probably the best hitting pitcher in history, OPS+ 133.
• Dwight Evans-RF (1972-91) (61.7 WAR) (#28 HOP) (HoM 1997-1st) – Much like the other D. Evans. 8 GG. OPS+ of 137 1980-89.
• Bill Freehan-C (1961-76) (43.4 WAR) (#38 HOP) (HoM 1985-4th) – The top catcher of the 1960’s, 11-time all-star.
• Fred McGriff-1B (1986-2004) (50.5 WAR) (#30 HOP) – Ten years 30+ HR, 8 years 100+ RBI. OPS+ of 153 1987-94.
• Dale Murphy-CF/RF (1976-93) (44.4 WAR) (#40 HOP,#17 UQFC) – 7 years all-star, 5 GG, 2 MVP. OPS+ of 140 1980-87.
• Joe Start-1B (1862-86) (30.9 WAR) (#42 HOP) (HoM 1912-15th) – Age 33 when the NL was founded, long-established as the game’s premier first baseman. Adapted and excelled throughout the pro game’s early development.
• Harry Stovey-LF/1B (1880-93) (46.8 WAR) (#33 HOP,#20 UQFC) (HoM 1916-18th) – Power/speed king of the early game. Along with Hamilton and Gore, one of three players with 1000 runs scored and more R than G. OPS+ of 151 1882-91.
• Ezra Sutton-3B (1870-88) (37.3 WAR) (#41 HOP) (HoM 1908-11th) – The top third baseman pre-1900.
• Jim Wynn-CF (1963-77) (59.8 WAR) (#35 HOP) (HoM 1996-14th) – A case for sabermetrics, even more so than Grich.
41-50: Clearly better than the HOF mistakes, and just over the line for inclusion. They’re mostly long-overlooked players with statistical cases requiring translation. I will forgo commenting on these for now.
• Pete Browning-CF/LF (1882-94) (36.3 WAR) (HoM 2005-107th) –
• Cupid Childs-2B (1888-1901) (47.1 WAR) (#51 HOP) (HoM 1988-82nd) –
• Charlie Keller-LF (1939-52) (43.3 WAR) (#48 HOP) (HoM 1996-40th) –
• Cal McVey-C/1B (1869-79) (21.3 WAR) (#56 HOP) (HoM 1914-17th) –
• Dobie Moore-SS (1916-26) (WAR) (#50 HOP) (HoM 1991-60th) –
• Graig Nettles-3B (1967-88) (61.3 WAR) (#39 HOP) (HoM 2006-13th) –
• Willie Randolph-2B (1975-92) (60.4 WAR) (HoM 2001-4th) –
• Hardy Richardson-2B/LF (1879-92) (40.5 WAR) (#34 HOP) (HoM 1905-8th) –
• Jimmy Sheckard-LF (1897-1913) (51.7 WAR) (#44 HOP) (HoM 1930-12th) –
• George Van Haltren-CF (1887-1903) (45.9 WAR) (#49 HOP) –
Two recent BBWAA selections, Jim Rice and Bruce Sutter, fall below this group of 50 players. Andre Dawson is in the range of the third group. Recent VC selection Joe Gordon is from the second or third group.
Ten years ago the top 50 list included about 37 of the same names. Since then, the BBWAA elected Carter and Gossage; the VC picked up Gordon; and the election en masse of Black baseball stars in 2006 cleared about ten names from the list.
Keep in mind that the above is a seat-of-the-pants balancing of various surveys, ratings and opinions. Your Mileage May Vary.
Part 6 will discuss what the HOF should do with the Veterans Committee.
Tags: BBWAA, candidates, Hall of Fame, rules
June 3rd, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Daniel,
It’s June 3rd.
Please write something about the 2010 baseball season.
June 3rd, 2010 at 4:39 pm
Actually, this is a timely article, as the BBWAA screening committee will soon meet to decide who makes the 2011 ballot.
June 3rd, 2010 at 4:42 pm
Jiminy Crickets… you put a LOT of work into this.
What reaction are you expecting from this article?
June 4th, 2010 at 2:24 am
Hossrex: Thanks, yes, it took a lot to put this all together. Ya know, I’ve been writing these HOF articles and developing the ideas for nearly 30 years. I’m just trying to get some ideas out there, to get people that care about the HOF to think about what could be done.
Will it lead to anything? Sometimes I think it already has, since the HOF has adopted changes that are similar to things I’ve proposed. Maybe that’s fantasy. But if you know anyone who’s interested in the topic, please point them to this article. If we can get people to send messages to writers, broadcasters and to the HOF we might raise enough dust to get the Hall to move.
If not, well, it was fun researching it.
Quick anecdote: Four years ago I traded a few emails with someone at the HOF, finally getting them to issue a mea culpa that they had forgotten to consider Ken Caminiti for the 2006 ballot. (Players who die get early eligibility; Lima is eligible for the 2011 ballot, although he shouldn’t get past the screeners.)
June 4th, 2010 at 3:32 am
Daniel Greenia: “finally getting them to issue a mea culpa that they had forgotten to consider Ken Caminiti for the 2006 ballot.”
Ever seen the Cheers episode where Cliff goes on Jeopardy? It’s a classic episode. Anyway… Cliff gets on Jeopardy, and completely dominates for the first two rounds, then bets everything, and totally bungles Final Jeopardy with the answer of “Who are three people who’ve never been in my kitchen.”
The answer is of course wrong, Cliff loses all his money, and of course the game. He’s livid, because he insists that TECHNICALLY, the people in the clue had never been in his kitchen, so his answer should be rules correctly. It doesn’t work, and his friends and him retire back to Cheers for a drink.
Later that night, Alex Trebek wonders into Cheers, and see’s Cliff Clavin sitting at the bar. He goes over to talk to him, and Cliff again insists that his answer should have been correct. Alex wholeheartedly agrees with him, and tells him that while he agrees the answer should have been correct, there are rules in place, it’s too late to do anything about it, and he’s very sorry that he can’t help him. Cliff appreciates the candid response, and walks away with his dignity intact.
Carla comes over to Alex and tells him how classy that was. How it was really respectful that he came all the way down to Cheers just to tell Cliff he was right.
Alex’s response?
“I didn’t come to tell him he was right, I just came in for a beer. Frankly Cliff frightens me.”
The moral?
Caminiti had about 4 years worth of near hall of fame play, and that was OPENLY due to steroid use (it’s what killed the bastard). He was so far away that they didn’t put him on the ballot because it was a waste of ink, but after badgering the poor HOF guy for long enough, you succeeded in getting the trite “yes sir, whatever you say sir, we’re sorry sir, we’ll try not to let it happen again sir” answer that you’ve probably gotten several times in restaurants (I don’t know why I picture you as the type of guy who sends back a restaurant hamburger for being overcooked, but I do).
June 4th, 2010 at 3:35 am
“(Players who die get early eligibility; Lima is eligible for the 2011 ballot, although he shouldn’t get past the screeners.)”
That’s not true. There is a seperate ballot to determine eligibility, Lou Gehrig and Roberto Clemente were no doubt HOFers, so they got on.
There’s no “automatic on if you croak” clause.
June 4th, 2010 at 8:52 am
Chuck: “There’s no “automatic on if you croak” clause.”
Well, not “automatic”, but the screeners can consider you for the BBWAA ballot early if you croak. This is rule 3.D of the BBWAA Election Rules from the Hall’s website:
“D. In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.”
After they called for the special election that elected Clemente, it was decided to create a rule to cover future sudden deaths. So when Munson died on 8/2/79, the rule made him eligible for the BBWAA’s regular 1981 election. When Darryl Kile died on 6/22/02 he was on the ballot for the 2003 election.
After retiring in 2001, Caminiti died on 10/10/04, making him eligible for the 2006 election. When the ballot was announced in November 2005, my correspondence with the HOF led to confirmation that they had overlooked him. Their rather blithe conclusion was, Oh well, we’ll get him for the next ballot. Which they did and he received 2 votes.
“Whoever can be trusted with very little can also be trusted with much, and whoever is dishonest with very little will also be dishonest with much.” –Luke 16:10
June 4th, 2010 at 9:44 am
Daniel, I truly don’t know where to start.
First of all I showed this site and your series of articles to my brother-in-law who is a writer with a HOF vote. And he thought that you had a few interesting ideas but for the most part his thoughts boiled down to two things.
1. The Hall will never ever turn into some transparent FOIA government type of organization in the way that you want it to.
Why should it? Who’s clamoring for it? What would it solve?
2. While you may valley-girl the thought of small-hall thinking with your “whatever”, unfortunately you are in the wrong camp of thinking.
The majority of voters are small-hall guys and unless the next wave of voters in 10-20 years suddenly has a major change of heart there is nothing changing in this area either.
Out of your top 10 he wanted to pass along that other than Alomar and possibly Blyleven every one else on that list has no chance of making it. And in the case of Larkin, outside of 2012 he’s got no chance either for a long while.
He’s going to get buried by all of the first ballot guys coming down the pipeline over the next 8-10 years. For him it’s probably 2012 or 2022.
He also found all of your sabermetric numbers comical. It shows how little you know about the thinking that a lot of voters have in regards to their votes.
Very few are “breaking it down”. Why should they? It’s not that hard.
Either the guy was great and he’s in or he’s John Franco and he’s got no chance.
I’ll try and post more thoughts later if I get the chance.
June 4th, 2010 at 9:59 am
Lefty, you only confirm that obvious, that the BBWAA electorate is seriously in need of reform and that such reform is unlikely to occur anytime soon.
June 4th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
Lefty: “Who’s clamoring for it? What would it solve?”
That’s pretty much where I am on this.
Lefty: “(Regarding Daniel) While you may valley-girl the thought of small-hall thinking with your “whatever”, unfortunately you are in the wrong camp of thinking.”
I’ve noticed something lately.
Everyone is small hall when it comes to generalities, and everyone is large hall when it comes to their pet players.
I’ll say it again. I wont be “happy” (in an emotional sense) with the hall of fame until Gil Hodges and Eric Karros is in.
So.
No matter how much futzing we do with the hall, it wont make me (i.e. “everybody”) happy, so…
WHATS THE POINT?
This whole series of articles has nothing to do with what’s “best for the hall”, it’s just all about “what we should do to the hall, so the players I think are deserving can get consideration, while the players I don’t think are deserving wont.”
Sure you have reasons for thinking that. We *ALL* have reasons.
Sure you think YOUR reasons are better… we *ALL* think our reasons are better.
http://i48.tinypic.com/99dr0w.jpg
June 4th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
“Everyone is small hall when it comes to generalities, and everyone is large hall when it comes to their pet players.”
I agree that I would love to see certain players in the Hall because they amused me when they played: Jack Clark, Sixto Lezcano, Joaquin Andujar, Al Hrabosky, Sal Fasano, and so on.
But I also know that fringe guys and marginal guys only water-down the Hall.
You know Daniel; there is a reason why the only HOF that any one gives a damn about is Baseball’s.
And that is the facade of exclusivity that it portrays. Doing most of what you suggest would change that and turn it more into something like this http://www.freshwater-fishing.org.
It’s kind of like Coke in the ‘80’s. They had the number #1 soda and then screwed with the formula and look what happened.
They did a mea culpa and went back to the formula that worked.
The Hall/BBWAA/Baseball will NEVER mess with its formula for the same reason.
@ Hoss- Nice use of the word futzing. I thought that was only a word I would hear around the PA Dutch Amish.
June 4th, 2010 at 3:10 pm
lol… California native all the way. I have no idea how “futzing” entered my personal vernacular.
I was amazed that firefox didn’t return a spelling error on it.
June 4th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
“Out of your top 10 he wanted to pass along that other than Alomar and possibly Blyleven every one else on that list has no chance of making it. And in the case of Larkin, outside of 2012 he’s got no chance either for a long while.”
You don’t need to be a BBWAA member to know that.
“He also found all of your sabermetric numbers comical.”
He wasn’t the only one.
June 5th, 2010 at 11:20 am
The last thing I’ll add to this Daniel; is that about the only way things will get shaken up with HOF voting is to have a repeat of ’96.
In ’96 no one was elected and two of the guys on the ballot were 300 game winners.
After that vote Selig’s minions were asking questions about the voting process and about whether the current voting setup was acceptable and whether it should be overhauled.
Obviously when no one gets elected it’s very bad economically for the Hall and Baseball.
Because at the end of the day each is are just money making vehicles.
Thankfully the storm passed but the by product of that is getting guys like Sutter, Rice, Gossage, and Perez elected.
I will pretty much guarantee that for the foreseeable future you will never see another year with no one elected for a very long time.
As long as someone half-way worth while is elected every year things won’t change.
June 5th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
lol… I was about to be indignant, until I noticed both 300 game winners were also 250 game losers.
It’s pretty much the same as if Curt Schilling, and David Wells had been snubbed for the hall on the same year no one was elected.
Both of those guys would have been three hundred game winners 15 years earlier.