How will I do with the LCS?

by JohnBowen

Well, I predicted three of the four division series winners and predicted one series completely right – of course, the odds of randomly guessing at least one series outcome (winner and # of games) are about the same as the Colorado Rockies winning a given game last year. And I completely whiffed on the Twins-Yankees series. Oh well…let’s see how I do with the LCS…and again, see if you can beat me (recent memory suggests it’s not that tough!)

ALCS: New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

Prediction: Rangers in 7

Why: Seriously John, why do you hate the Yankees? Oh I dunno. Push comes to shove, I think the Rangers’ rotation and bullpen depth will pay off. The Yankees have the best starter and reliever in this series, but after that, the Ranger staff is decisively better. Offensively, the edge is with the Yankees who led the league in scoring despite off-years from their three highest paid position players. Remember, I’m predicting this one to go 7, and I think the Yankees will have a 2-1, or possibly even a 3-2 lead in the series – but I think the Rangers and their superior staff will carry the day if the series goes home to Texas – and yes, despite winning five fewer games, the Rangers have home-field advantage for being division champs. However, the Yankees could take the series in 5 if Josh Hamilton has a repeat of his .111/.200/.111 performance because there’s almost no way Nelson Cruz or Ian Kinsler repeats theirs.

Bold Prediction: Tim McCarver will utter the following words in the following order: “To win this series, Sabathia at his very best, the Yankees must have, in order to be pennant winners for the second time in as many years.”

NLCS: San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Prediction: Phillies in 6

Why: This match-up faces some of the very best pitching match-ups you can ask for; game 1, Lincecum vs. Halladay. This year’s likely Cy Young winner vs. the two-time reigning winner. Game 1 could be a duel for the ages, and with the likes of Oswalt, Hamels, Sanchez, Cain, and Baumgarner coming up, look for at least a couple 2-1 affairs. On paper, the Phillies offense has a very clear advantage in this series – but I think the difference in bullpen strength between the two clubs will snatch a pair of late-game victories for the Giants. Still, the Phillies have the players and the experience to come away with a third consecutive NL pennant – and I think they will.

Bold Prediction: In the 1986 World Series, everyone was looking forward to seeing Roger Clemens and Dwight Gooden face off in an epic duel, much the same way that people are really going to be looking forward to Halladay-Lincecum. In that series, the Bruce Hurst-Ron Darling match-up turned out to be the 1-0 thriller – and I’m predicting the same out of the Oswalt-Sanchez match-up in game 2.

28 Responses to “How will I do with the LCS?”

  1. Chuck Says:

    Yanks in 6, Phils in 5.

    Bold Prediction: The single loudest ovation given to any player, in any park, this entire season will be for Pat Burrell’s first AB in Philly.

    The stadium might collapse.

  2. Raul Says:

    I’ll make my prediction.
    I think the Yankees beat the Rangers and Nick Swisher is going to rake.

  3. Cameron Says:

    A Rangers-Phillies WS?

    That means all the games will be played in either Citizen’s Bank or Arlington with homer-heavy lineups.

    Jesus that’s gonna be awesome to watch. …I grew up with 90s baseball, remember? I love homers and strikeouts more than small ball and groundouts.

  4. Jim Says:

    Yanks over the Rangers in 6. Bold Prediction: In two games the Rangers will carry the lead into the 9th and Feliz will melt down.

    Phils over the Giants in 6. Bold Prediction: No team will score more than 4 runs in any game. Pitching will be a draw but the Phils bats will be a bit better.

  5. Raul Says:

    I’m rooting for the Giants to beat Philly, but they probably won’t.

    Pablo Sandoval is like Rick Vaughn. He needs to find whatever the hell he had because he’s been pathetic this season.

    Here’s what we’re looking at:

    Game 1: Sabathia vs. CJ Wilson
    Game 1: Lincecum vs. Halladay

    Game 2: Hughes vs. Lewis
    Game 2: Sanchez vs. Hamels

    Game 3: Lee vs. Pettitte
    Game 3: Oswalt vs. Cain

    Game 4: Hunter vs. Burnett
    Game 4: TBA vs. TBA

  6. Lefty33 Says:

    “Game 4: TBA vs. TBA”

    My guess for Philly is that unless they are down 3-0 or 2-1 and are desperate you’ll see Blanton in game 4. No short rest for Halladay.

    Blanton just pitched a simulated game yesterday “against” Oswalt and I think quietly the Phillies are hoping to get something out of him the same way how the Yankees are pitching Burnett in Game 4.

  7. Cameron Says:

    You know what happens when you pitch Burnett or Blanton?

    “Wow… I forgot how much these guys can fuck up in one game.”

  8. Hossrex Says:

    Well, I got half right last round. I admitted picking the Braves was bias against the Giants (which I’d regretted), and I really think Tampa got screwed. Texas is not a better team, nor is it particularly suited for the DS.

    Since both my World Series picks are still in the game, I’m not going to change a thing.

    Thus:

    League Championship Series’:

    Yankees in 5
    Phillies in 7 (after extra innings, and walk-off heroics from Jayson Werth)

    World Series:

    Yankees in 4 (although all four games will be close, and surprisingly low scoring).

  9. JohnBowen Says:

    I think this is why the Rays lost:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-rayswefarm101110

  10. Hartvig Says:

    John- I do believe you may be right. I still remember when players went home in the off season to a real farm. A mule bit off a scouts finger on Gaylord Perry’s farm. Roger Maris helped Whitey Herzog build his house in Kansas City the winter after his historic 1961 season (I just started “You’re Missing a Great Game” last night). I do miss those days.

    And my 2 cents:
    New York in 6
    Philly in 5

    Philly in 6 in the world series.

    But I hope I’m wrong on every prediction.

  11. Joseph DelGrippo Says:

    “The Yankees have the best starter and reliever in this series, but after that, the Ranger staff is decisively better.”

    The Rangers have the best starter in Lee, but the Yankees have the next three best starters.

    Colby Lewis and Tommy Hunter have been dreadful in the second half, and HUnter’s road woes might come back to haunt the Rangers.

    The Rangers have faced three of the worst offenses in baseball almost half their total games with the Mariners, A’s and Angels.

    That would make anybody’s pitching look better.

  12. Chuck Says:

    Raise your hand.

    You have a choice, Sabathia or Lee.

    Raise your hand if you’d take Lee.

    (Through his crystal ball computer camera sees no hands raised).

    Thought so.

  13. JohnBowen Says:

    Joseph,

    Hunter and Lewis have been 4.41/1.272 and 4.18/1.273 for ERA/WHIP respectively.

    Hughes was 4.90/1.341; Pettitte was 7.47/2.106, albeit in just 4 starts (but, being injured certainly doesn’t help).

    And I’ll take Sabathia over Lee any day. Both have put up some terrific years, but Lee has been good for the last couple years; Sabathia has been a decade-long workhorse. But still – advantage Rangers as far as pitchers are concerned – Pettitte’s saving grace is his experience, but that’s kind of cancelled out by the fact that he’s been injured and he’s old.

  14. Chuck Says:

    If the Rangers go to New York down 0-2, the series isn’t going back to Texas.

    I know alot’s been made of the fact Cliff Lee has never started on three days rest, but if I’m Ron Washington, I would at least consider it.

    Texas goes to New York 1-1 it’s a whole different series.

  15. Raul Says:

    The Yankees need to score early to crush the hopes of the Rangers. The longer the game stays close, the more confidence they’ll get. But NY does have some veteran players that should be able to come through.

    I just hope Girardi doesn’t hold back the running game. Torre was notorious for refusing to steal and he cost the Yankees big time.

  16. JohnBowen Says:

    We could be seeing two completely different styles of a running-game;

    In the last series, Bengie Molina stole a base.

    Bengie. Molina.

    Granted, it was a failed hit-and-run.

    But still…Washington will send anyone. Unless the baserunner is Gardner, Girardi is more apprehensive.

  17. Chuck Says:

    “…Washington will send anyone.”

    That’s going to be the series right there, because Posada and Cervelli couldn’t throw out a corpse.

    If the pitching can’t keep guys like Borbon and Andrus off the bases, it’s going to be a circus, and the Yanks will be done early.

  18. Mike Felber Says:

    I think Chuck is close: Yanks in 7, Phils in 5.

    Bold Prediction: Texas scores everyone of its runs through any player getting on swiping every remaining base, including home. ;-)

  19. Hossrex Says:

    It’s interesting. I don’t think there were any two matching picks for the DS, and yet for the LCS just about everyone here has given some form of “Yanks and Phils”.

    It’s THAT which makes me want to give a second look to Texas and San Francisco.

    Each series is 25 men who know they’re supposed to win, against 25 men who know they’re supposed to lose.

    Some teams play up to that shit.

  20. Shawn Says:

    I’ll just say Rangers and Giants because no one else did. I am well aware it will not happen though, unless a miracle happens.

    Bold Prediction: The fact I picked Rangers and Giants is as bold of a gamble as anything.

  21. JohnBowen Says:

    So much for my theory about the Rangers’ decisively better bullpen…

  22. Chuck Says:

    Don’t talk too soon, John.

  23. Lefty33 Says:

    “The Yankees need to score early to crush the hopes of the Rangers.”

    Excellent prediction Raul.

    The Yankees biggest problem is that so far the opposite has happened.

    They continue to do the same stupid shit they did the last two months of the year with getting behind early and then hoping for/needing the big comeback to win.

    I mean even Master of the Obvious John Sterling has noted that numerous times.

    Not So Bold Prediction: If the Yankees keep getting behind against the Texas starters they will be done in five not Texas.

    Let’s face it, they’ve got a tough job against Lee in game three and you already know that Burnett is going to get shellacked in game four.

    Better than 50/50 to me that Tuesday night around 11:30pm the Yankees find themselves down 3-1.

  24. John Says:

    “Jacks by Giant give Philly unhappy Halladay”

    Seriously?

    Come on MLB.com. Just say “Ross’s 2 shots propel Giants to victory” as your title.

  25. Cameron Says:

    Aw man… Fred Schuman/Freddy Sex, legendary Yankees superfan died today.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2010/10/17/2010-10-17_freddy_sez_a_yankee_stadium_staple_for_the_last_20_years_dead_at_age_82.html

  26. Cameron Says:

    Er… Freddy Sez. My keyboard’s a lil’ screwy.

  27. Jim Says:

    yeah, yeah, yeah. We know what’s on your mind Cameron.

  28. Cameron Says:

    You know it’s bad when your computer makes the Freudian Slip for you.

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