Results for the 2011 Dugout Central Challenge
At the beginning of the season, Dugout Central readers and staff were challenged to predict the number of wins for each of the thirty MLB teams. The predictions were given in previous articles for the AL and NL. There were actually two contests, each with a different scoring method. One was simply to take the average win difference (AWD) between our picks and the final win totals. The other used root mean square error (RMSE), which penalizes really bad individual predictions.
In the AWD contest, it went down to the wire and ended up in a tie for both first and third. The final AWD standings:
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||9.43|
The Average prediction used the average of the six Dugout Central entries (John, Chuck, Patrick, me, Robert and Jon). Asterisks denote various automatic picks. The DM entries are the predictions from Diamond Mind simulations using Bill James, CAIRO, and Marcel individual player projections – the Diamond Mind prediction used an average of several player projections. Also included were win predictions from Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times. The Over/Under used the over/under Vegas line from bookmaker.com. 2010 used last year’s records and 2010 Pythagorean used last year’s Pythagorean records. Finally, 81 Wins “predicted” 81 wins for each team.
Chuck Johnson and John Bowen finished in a dead tie for first place. Congratulations, gentlemen! Patrick and I, who tied for first last year in AWD, remained joined at the hip again as we tied for third. Six heads were better than one as the Average predictions outperformed any individual. Overall, the computer picks and Over/Under did better than the DC predictions, with the exception of The Hardball Times. Baseball Prospectus, which has done horribly the last two years, returned to respectability. For a good part of the year, 81 Wins was doing better than many of the other predictions, but in the end it faded badly. This year was a little harder than last, when the best AWD score was 6.53.
Chuck easily wins Most Improved honors, going from last to first, while John clearly is the Rookie of the Year.
In the RMSE contest, which emphasizes consistency and penalizes really bad predictions, the standings were:
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||12.11|
Chuck took top honors for RMSE, while I sneaked into second place ahead of John. The best RMSE last year was lower, at 8.16, again indicating that 2011 was a tough year to make win predictions. DM-CAIRO won the overall RMSE title.
Congratulations again to our winners, and hopefully we can do it again in 2012.