Results for the 2012 Dugout Central Challenge
At the beginning of the 2012 season, Dugout Central readers and staff were challenged to predict the number of wins for each of the thirty MLB teams. The predictions were given in a previous article. There were actually two contests, each with a different scoring method. One was simply to take the average win difference (AWD) between our picks and the final win totals. The other used root mean square error (RMSE), which penalizes really bad individual predictions.
In the AWD contest, it was very close but Robert edged me out for first place. We also both beat the Vegas Over/Under. John and Chuck, who tied for first in 2011, fell to the bottom in 2012. The final AWD standings:
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||8.80|
The Average prediction used the average of six Dugout Central entries (Robert, me, Jon, Patrick, Chuck, and John). Asterisks denote various automatic picks. The Over/Under used the over/under Vegas line from the Las Vegas Hilton. 2011 used the 2011 records and 2011 Pythagorean used the 2011 Pythagorean records. Finally, 81 Wins “predicted” 81 wins for each team. For a good part of the year, 81 Wins was doing better than many of the other predictions, but in the end it faded badly.
2012 was a little easier than 2011, when the best AWD score was 8.47. Robert easily wins Most Improved honors, going from next-to-last to first.
In the RMSE contest, which emphasizes consistency and penalizes really bad predictions, the standings were:
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||10.88|
I took top honors for RMSE for the third year out of four, barely beating out Jon. The best RMSE in 2011 was lower, at 10.39. Nobody beat the Over/Under in the RMSE.
Congratulations again to our winners, and stay tuned for the 2013 contest.